Italy v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 50
9 November 2024Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
What the model says about Italy v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 115 m
- Temperature
- 8.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Mirco Spagnolo
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Giacomo Nicotera
- 17Danilo Fischetti
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Dino Lamb
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Marco Zanon
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 12Matias Orlando-3.8
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Ignacio Calles
- 18Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Juan Bautista Pedemonte
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Matías Moroni-12.4
- 23Santiago Cordero-1.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 132 | Carries | 130 |
| 499m | Carry metres | 656m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 38 |
| 8 | Offloads | 12 |
| 197 | Passes | 198 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Tackles made | 169 |
| 70.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 38 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 20 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 101 | Rucks won | 88 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 36 |
| 766m | Kick metres | 1088m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| — | Conversions | 6 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.