Ireland v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 19
15 November 2024Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Argentina
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 12.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19Ryan Baird-0.9
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Sam Prendergast
- 23Jamie Osborne
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 12Matías Moroni-12.4
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Ignacio Calles
- 18Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 21Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Justo Piccardo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 49.0% | Possession | 51.0% |
| 56.0% | Territory | 44.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 163 | Carries | 138 |
| 432m | Carry metres | 302m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 31 |
| 8 | Offloads | 7 |
| 210 | Passes | 148 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Tackles made | 204 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 31 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 17 | Dominant tackles | 29 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 119 | Rucks won | 114 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 338m | Kick metres | 495m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.