France v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
30 – 29
16 November 2024Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Tevita Tatafu
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 7Alexandre Roumat
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 14Gabin Villière
- 15Romain Buros
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Mickaël Guillard
- 21Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Émilien Gailleton
New Zealand
- 1Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Samipeni Finau
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Ofa Tu'ungafasi-3.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Peter Lakai+5.9
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 45.0% | Territory | 55.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Carries | 184 |
| 370m | Carry metres | 635m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 12 | Defenders beaten | 34 |
| 4 | Offloads | 13 |
| 91 | Passes | 240 |
Defence
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 207 | Tackles made | 112 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 34 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 91.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 68 | Rucks won | 136 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 16 |
| 730m | Kick metres | 481m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.