England v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 29
16 November 2024Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 7.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.7 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 38 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Chandler Cunningham-South
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Ollie Sleightholme
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Dan Cole+1.5
- 19Nick Isiekwe
- 20Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 21Harry Randall
- 22George Ford-2.9
- 23Tom Roebuck
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5RG Snyman+8.1
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Manie Libbok-3.8
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Elrigh Louw
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Handré Pollard-4.0
- 23Lukhanyo Am-2.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 109 | Carries | 88 |
| 309m | Carry metres | 323m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 3 | Offloads | 7 |
| 113 | Passes | 94 |
Defence
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Tackles made | 144 |
| 76.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 18 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 87.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 92.0% |
| 84 | Rucks won | 67 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 613m | Kick metres | 641m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.