Wales v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 52
17 November 2024Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Australia
- Kick-off
- 16:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 8.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.4 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Archie Griffin+9.9
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Ellis Bevan
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Blair Murray
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Cameron Winnett
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Christ Tshiunza
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Sam Costelow+2.7
- 23Eddie James
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Will Skelton+6.1
- 6Seru Uru
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Rob Valetini
- 9Nic White-2.5
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Max Jorgensen
- 12Samu Kerevi+5.2
- 13Len Ikitau+2.7
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17James Slipper-3.3
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 45.0% | Possession | 55.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 117 | Carries | 165 |
| 373m | Carry metres | 695m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 1 | Offloads | 14 |
| 184 | Passes | 212 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 203 | Tackles made | 138 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 67.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 97 | Rucks won | 126 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 10 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 24 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 707m | Kick metres | 763m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 8 |
| 2 | Conversions | 6 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.