Italy v Georgia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
20 – 17
17 November 2024Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova
What the model says about Italy v Georgia
- Kick-off
- 13:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 23 m
- Temperature
- 13.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Dino Lamb
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro(c)
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Jacopo Trulla
- 15Matt Gallagher
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Pietro Ceccarelli+0.8
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Giulio Bertaccini
Georgia
- 1Nika Abuladze
- 2Vano Karkadze
- 3Irakli Aptsiauri
- 4Mikheil Babunashvili
- 5Giorgi Javakhia
- 6Ilia Spanderashvili
- 7Giorgi Tsutskiridze
- 8Tornike Jalagonia
- 9Vasil Lobzhanidze(c)
- 10Luka Matkava
- 11Sandro Todua
- 12Tornike Kakhoidze
- 13Giorgi Kveseladze(c)
- 14Akaki Tabutsadze
- 15Davit Niniashvili(c)
Replacements
- 16Luka Nioradze
- 17Giorgi Akhaladze
- 18Luka Japaridze
- 19Lado Chachanidze
- 20Luka Ivanishvili
- 21Gela Aprasidze
- 22Tedo Abzhandadze
- 23Demur Tapladze
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 68.0% | Possession | 32.0% |
| 80.0% | Territory | 20.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 177 | Carries | 60 |
| 480m | Carry metres | 218m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 29 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 5 | Offloads | 2 |
| 250 | Passes | 60 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Tackles made | 257 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 29 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 22 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Lineout success | 73.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 92.0% |
| 154 | Rucks won | 47 |
| 7 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 864m | Kick metres | 701m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 2 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.