Wales v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 45
23 November 2024Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 21.8 mm
- Wind
- 37 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Archie Griffin+9.9
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Christ Tshiunza
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Taine Plumtree
- 9Ellis Bevan
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Rio Dyer+5.1
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Josh Hathaway
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Kemsley Mathias
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Eddie James
- 23Owen Watkin-4.4
South Africa
- 1Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Elrigh Louw
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Jaden Hendrikse+5.8
- 10Jordan Hendrikse
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19Marco van Staden-5.4
- 20RG Snyman+8.1
- 21Cameron Hanekom
- 22Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 23Handré Pollard-4.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 39.0% | Territory | 61.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 62 | Carries | 183 |
| 84m | Carry metres | 621m |
| 1 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 6 | Defenders beaten | 46 |
| 2 | Offloads | 20 |
| 73 | Passes | 209 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 216 | Tackles made | 92 |
| 72.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 46 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 83.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 50.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 3 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 56 | Rucks won | 121 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 20 |
| 537m | Kick metres | 429m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 5 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 5 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.