Ireland v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 19
30 November 2024Dublin, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Australia
- Elevation
- 14 m
- Temperature
- 13.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5James Ryan-8.4
- 6Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Gus McCarthy
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Garry Ringrose-5.7
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Max Jorgensen
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Andrew Kellaway+4.5
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Isaac Kailea
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 20Langi Gleeson
- 21Tate McDermott+4.9
- 22Tane Edmed
- 23Harry Potter-1.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 69.0% | Territory | 31.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 140 | Carries | 104 |
| 390m | Carry metres | 336m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 7 | Offloads | 3 |
| 273 | Passes | 162 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 134 | Tackles made | 167 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 15 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 20 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 112 | Rucks won | 81 |
| 3 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 658m | Kick metres | 825m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.