France v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 0
31 January 2025Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Wales
- Kick-off
- 20:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 2.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.3 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Alexandre Roumat
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Georges-Henri Colombe
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Mickaël Guillard
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 23Émilien Gailleton
Wales
- 1Gareth Thomas
- 2Evan Lloyd
- 3Henry Thomas
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Ben Thomas
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Owen Watkin-4.4
- 13Nick Tompkins-1.1
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Liam Williams+7.7
Replacements
- 16Elliot Dee+7.1
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Keiron Assiratti
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 21Rhodri Williams
- 22Dan Edwards
- 23Blair Murray
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 143 | Carries | 158 |
| 431m | Carry metres | 406m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 12 |
| 13 | Offloads | 5 |
| 147 | Passes | 235 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Tackles made | 185 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 12 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 9 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 9 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 103 | Rucks won | 125 |
| 9 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 28 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 881m | Kick metres | 620m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 13 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | — |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.