Ireland v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 22
1 February 2025Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v England
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 7.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.3 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris(c)-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Mack Hansen-4.3
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19Iain Henderson-1.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Conor Murray-1.4
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Robbie Henshaw-3.3
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje(c)-12.4
- 5George Martin+7.1
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Ben Curry
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Marcus Smith-0.6
- 11Cadan Murley
- 12Henry Slade0.0
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Joe Heyes
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Tom Willis
- 22Harry Randall
- 23Fin Smith+5.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 58.0% | Territory | 42.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Carries | 107 |
| 465m | Carry metres | 434m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 26 | Defenders beaten | 33 |
| 9 | Offloads | 3 |
| 210 | Passes | 133 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 153 | Tackles made | 156 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 33 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 26 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 23 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 90 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 948m | Kick metres | 814m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.