Italy v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 73
23 February 2025Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v France
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 9 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Martin Page-Relo
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Simone Gesi
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Ange Capuozzo-6.5
- 15Tommaso Allan-3.0
Replacements
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Mickaël Guillard
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Alexandre Roumat
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 23Maxime Lucu+1.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | Possession | 62.0% |
| 40.0% | Territory | 60.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 87 | Carries | 168 |
| 363m | Carry metres | 677m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 15 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 34 |
| 4 | Offloads | 27 |
| 125 | Passes | 247 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 164 | Tackles made | 88 |
| 68.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 34 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 61 | Rucks won | 109 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 23 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 551m | Kick metres | 700m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 11 |
| 3 | Conversions | 9 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.