Scotland v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 29
8 March 2025Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v Wales
- Kick-off
- 16:45 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 9.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Dave Cherry-4.9
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell(c)-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Tom Jordan
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Gregor Brown-6.0
- 20Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 23Kyle Rowe+7.4
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Elliot Dee+7.1
- 3WillGriff John
- 4Will Rowlands-7.2
- 5Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 6Jac Morgan(c)+0.3
- 7Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Gareth Anscombe+3.7
- 11Ellis Mee
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 65.0% | Territory | 35.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 172 | Carries | 101 |
| 553m | Carry metres | 472m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 16 | Offloads | 1 |
| 221 | Passes | 186 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Tackles made | 242 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 19 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 76.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 135 | Rucks won | 86 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 662m | Kick metres | 794m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 11 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.