Ireland v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 42
8 March 2025Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v France
- Kick-off
- 14:15 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.8 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Peter O’Mahony-3.6
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11Calvin Nash
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Jamie Osborne
- 15Hugo Keenan-3.3
Replacements
- 16Rob Herring+3.4
- 17Cian Healy-4.9
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19James Ryan-8.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Ryan Baird-0.9
- 22Conor Murray-1.4
- 23Jack Crowley
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 3Uini Atonio+0.4
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Mickaël Guillard
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt+5.6
- 9Antoine Dupont(c)+8.4
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Julien Marchand+1.9
- 17Cyril Baille+5.5
- 18Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 19Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 20Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 21Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 22Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 23Maxime Lucu+1.2
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 141 | Carries | 96 |
| 477m | Carry metres | 474m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 7 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 8 | Offloads | 9 |
| 225 | Passes | 131 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | Tackles made | 187 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 15 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 115 | Rucks won | 62 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 866m | Kick metres | 1013m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 3 | Conversions | 4 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.