England v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
47 – 24
9 March 2025Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Will Stuart+2.0
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Tom Curry+0.8
- 7Ben Earl+3.7
- 8Tom Willis
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Ollie Sleightholme
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Joe Heyes
- 19Ted Hill
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Ben Curry
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Matt Gallagher
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Monty Ioane-7.7
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Lorenzo Cannone
- 22Martin Page-Relo
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 145 | Carries | 83 |
| 583m | Carry metres | 305m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 36 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 12 | Offloads | 4 |
| 187 | Passes | 125 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 97 | Tackles made | 148 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 36 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 16 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 91 | Rucks won | 64 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 970m | Kick metres | 882m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Tries | 3 |
| 6 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.