Namibia v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
6 – 73
27 June 2025Hage Geingob Stadium, Windhoek
What the model says about Namibia v Italy
- Kick-off
- 13:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 1697 m
- Temperature
- 8.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Namibia
- 1Haitembu Shikufa
- 2Louis van der Westhuizen
- 3Aranos Coetzee
- 4Adriaan Ludick
- 5Johan Retief
- 6Prince ǃGaoseb
- 7Max Katjijeko
- 8Adriaan Booysen
- 9Jacques Theron
- 10Tiaan Swanepoel
- 11Jurgen Meyer
- 12Danco Burger
- 13Alcino Izaacs
- 14Danie van der Merwe
- 15Andre van der Berg
Replacements
- 16Armand Combrinck
- 17Jason Benade
- 18Sidney Halupe
- 19Ruan Ludick
- 20Johan Luttig
- 21AJ Kearns
- 22Peter Diergaardt
- 23Quiren Madjiedt
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 6Sebastian Negri-14.0
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Ross Vintcent
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Giacomo Da Re
- 11Simone Gesi
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 14Paolo Odogwu
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
- 16Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Muhamed Hasa
- 19Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 20Lorenzo Cannone
- 21Stephen Varney-4.1
- 22Giulio Bertaccini
- 23Mirko Belloni
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 38.0% | Possession | 62.0% |
| 43.0% | Territory | 57.0% |
Attack
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 63 | Carries | 98 |
| 125m | Carry metres | 503m |
| — | Clean breaks | 12 |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 30 |
| 5 | Offloads | 5 |
| 88 | Passes | 131 |
Defence
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Tackles made | 79 |
| 68.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 30 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 95.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 83.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 48 | Rucks won | 58 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 449m | Kick metres | 546m |
Discipline
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Namibia | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| — | Tries | 11 |
| — | Conversions | 7 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.