Japan v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 19
5 July 2025Mikuni World Stadium Kitakyushu, Fukuoka
What the model says about Japan v Wales
- Kick-off
- 05:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 15 m
- Temperature
- 28.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.5 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
33.60000,130.41667 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Yota Kamimori
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Epineri Uluiviti
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Michael Leitch
- 7Jack Cornelsen
- 8Amato Fakatava
- 9Shinobu Fujiwara
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Malo Tuitama
- 12Shogo Nakano
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kippei Ishida
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Hayate Era
- 17Sena Kimura
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Waisake Raratubua
- 20Ben Gunter
- 21Shuntaro Kitamura
- 22Ichigo Nakakusu
- 23Halatoa Vailea
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Ben Carter
- 5Teddy Williams
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Josh MacLeod
- 8Taulupe Faletau+8.0
- 9Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Johnny Williams
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Liam Belcher
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19James Ratti
- 20Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 21Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 22Rhodri Williams
- 23Joe Roberts
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 90 | Carries | 88 |
| 269m | Carry metres | 267m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 16 |
| 4 | Offloads | 2 |
| 128 | Passes | 115 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 107 | Tackles made | 122 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 16 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 1 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 65 | Rucks won | 72 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 633m | Kick metres | 586m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.