Argentina v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 35
5 July 2025Estadio Jorge Luis Hirschi, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v England
- Kick-off
- 19:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 14 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-34.91194,-57.93889 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 21 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Lucas Paulos
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Facundo Isa+1.6
- 9Gonzalo Bertranou-0.8
- 10Santiago Carreras
- 11Santiago Cordero-1.8
- 12Justo Piccardo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Benjamín Elizalde
Replacements
- 16Bautista Bernasconi
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 20Joaquin Moro
- 21Simon Benitez Cruz
- 22Nicolás Roger
- 23Matías Moroni-12.4
England
- 1Fin Baxter
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 5Alex Coles-2.3
- 6Ben Curry
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Tom Willis
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Will Muir
- 12Seb Atkinson
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 19Chandler Cunningham-South
- 20Guy Pepper
- 21Alex Dombrandt-10.3
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23Cadan Murley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 150 | Carries | 105 |
| 434m | Carry metres | 283m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 24 | Defenders beaten | 28 |
| 10 | Offloads | 2 |
| 196 | Passes | 138 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 104 | Tackles made | 205 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 28 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 24 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 25 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 89.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 111 | Rucks won | 69 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 41 |
| 903m | Kick metres | 1292m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.