South Africa v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
42 – 24
5 July 2025Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria
What the model says about South Africa v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 1354 m
- Temperature
- 9.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Wilco Louw-1.7
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Lood de Jager-4.9
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Vincent Tshituka
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Morné van den Berg
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel(c)-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Bongi Mbonambi-3.5
- 17Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 18Vincent Koch-5.2
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Franco Mostert-1.0
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Faf de Klerk-2.9
- 23Willie le Roux+4.6
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone(c)
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Alessandro Izekor
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Giacomo Da Re
- 11Simone Gesi
- 12Marco Zanon
- 13Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Jacopo Trulla
Replacements
- 16Pablo Dimcheff
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Muhamed Hasa
- 19Matteo Canali
- 20Ross Vintcent
- 21David Odiase
- 22Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 23Giulio Bertaccini
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 57.0% | Possession | 43.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Carries | 91 |
| 479m | Carry metres | 189m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 6 | Offloads | 9 |
| 170 | Passes | 116 |
Defence
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 126 | Tackles made | 190 |
| 75.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 13 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 75.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 80.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 119 | Rucks won | 73 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 509m | Kick metres | 699m |
Discipline
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| South Africa | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 6 | Conversions | 3 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.