Australia v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
21 – 18
6 July 2025McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle
What the model says about Australia v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 03:30 UTC
- Elevation
- 13 m
- Temperature
- 14.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.0 mm
- Wind
- 18 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Dave Porecki
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Langi Gleeson
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10Noah Lolesio+7.8
- 11Max Jorgensen
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Harry Potter-1.0
- 15Tom Wright+11.9
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Tom Hooper-6.0
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Nic White-2.5
- 22Ben Donaldson+4.2
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Peni Ravai+5.9
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Lekima Tagitagivalu
- 7Elia Canakaivata
- 8Viliame Mata
- 9Simione Kuruvoli
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Iosefo Masi
- 14Kalaveti Ravouvou
- 15Salesi Rayasi
Replacements
- 16Sam Matavesi
- 17Haereiti Hetet
- 18Mesake Doge
- 19Mesake Vocevoce
- 20Albert Tuisue
- 21Philip Baselala
- 22Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
- 23Sireli Maqala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Carries | 130 |
| 430m | Carry metres | 621m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 29 |
| 6 | Offloads | 11 |
| 202 | Passes | 182 |
Defence
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 175 | Tackles made | 130 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 81.0% |
| 29 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 4 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 67.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 90.0% | Scrum success | 71.0% |
| 9 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 90 | Rucks won | 98 |
| 5 | Mauls won | — |
Kicking
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 855m | Kick metres | 659m |
Discipline
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Australia | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| — | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.