New Zealand v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 17
12 July 2025Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v France
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 31 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 19 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor(c)-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Ardie Savea(c)-6.0
- 8Christian Lio-Willie
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Jordie Barrett(c)+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Emoni Narawa
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Ollie Norris
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Samipeni Finau
- 20Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Timoci Tavatavanawai
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
France
- 1Baptiste Erdocio
- 2Gaëtan Barlot(c)
- 3Georges-Henri Colombe
- 4Joshua Brennan
- 5Matthias Halagahu
- 6Pierre Bochaton
- 7Jacobus van Tonder
- 8Esteban Abadie
- 9Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 10Joris Segonds
- 11Émilien Gailleton
- 12Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Pierre Bourgarit
- 17Paul Mallez
- 18Régis Montagne
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Cameron Woki-3.5
- 21Bastien Vergnes-Taillefer
- 22Thibault Daubagna
- 23Antoine Hastoy
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 129 | Carries | 113 |
| 480m | Carry metres | 312m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 15 |
| 12 | Offloads | 7 |
| 157 | Passes | 142 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 151 | Tackles made | 144 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 15 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 90.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 18 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 88 | Rucks won | 87 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 22 |
| 738m | Kick metres | 661m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 14 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.