Japan v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
22 – 31
12 July 2025Kobe Misaki Stadium, Kobe
What the model says about Japan v Wales
- Kick-off
- 05:50 UTC
- Elevation
- 8 m
- Temperature
- 27.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.9 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Yota Kamimori
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Keijiro Tamefusa
- 4Epineri Uluiviti
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Michael Leitch
- 7Jack Cornelsen
- 8Faulua Makisi
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Seungsin Lee
- 11Halatoa Vailea
- 12Shogo Nakano
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kippei Ishida
- 15Ichigo Nakakusu
Replacements
- 16Hayate Era
- 17Sena Kimura
- 18Shuhei Takeuchi
- 19Waisake Raratubua
- 20Ben Gunter
- 21Shinobu Fujiwara
- 22Sam Greene
- 23Kazuma Ueda
Wales
- 1Nicky Smith-0.9
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Archie Griffin+9.9
- 4Freddie Thomas
- 5Teddy Williams
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Josh MacLeod
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Johnny Williams
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Liam Belcher
- 17Gareth Thomas
- 18Chris Coleman
- 19James Ratti
- 20Taine Plumtree
- 21Tommy Reffell-2.7
- 22Reuben Morgan-Williams
- 23Keelan Giles
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 53.0% | Possession | 47.0% |
| 55.0% | Territory | 45.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Carries | 99 |
| 416m | Carry metres | 428m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 18 | Defenders beaten | 19 |
| 4 | Offloads | 8 |
| 171 | Passes | 122 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 105 | Tackles made | 149 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 85.0% |
| 19 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 18 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 82.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 82 | Rucks won | 63 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 33 |
| 868m | Kick metres | 1050m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 4 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.