Fiji v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 14
12 July 2025HFC Bank Stadium, Suva
What the model says about Fiji v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 03:00 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 22.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere(c)
- 3Mesake Doge
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Lekima Tagitagivalu
- 7Elia Canakaivata
- 8Viliame Mata
- 9Simione Kuruvoli
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Sireli Maqala
- 14Kalaveti Ravouvou
- 15Salesi Rayasi
Replacements
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 4Marshall Sykes
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Jamie Ritchie-7.2
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Jamie Dobie
- 10Fergus Burke
- 11Kyle Steyn(c)+2.9
- 12Tom Jordan
- 13Cameron Redpath
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Alec Hepburn
- 18Will Hurd
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Ollie Smith
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 159 | Carries | 96 |
| 647m | Carry metres | 326m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 37 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 9 | Offloads | 2 |
| 207 | Passes | 117 |
Defence
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 102 | Tackles made | 172 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 37 |
| 3 | Dominant tackles | 4 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 81.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 92.0% |
| 95 | Rucks won | 68 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 12 |
| 341m | Kick metres | 330m |
Discipline
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.