Samoa v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
12 – 41
18 July 2025Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about Samoa v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 07:35 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 23 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Samoa
- 1Aki Seiuli
- 2Pita Anae-Ah Sue
- 3Michael Alaalatoa
- 4Benjamin Nee-Nee
- 5Sam Slade
- 6Theo McFarland(c)
- 7Jonah Mau'u
- 8Taleni Seu
- 9Melani Matavao
- 10Jacob Umaga
- 11Tomasi Alosio
- 12Henry Taefu
- 13Duncan Paia'aua
- 14Tuna Tuitama
- 15Latrell Smiler Ah-Kiong
Replacements
- 16Luteru Tolai
- 17Kaynan Siteine-Tua
- 18Marco Fepulea'i
- 19Michael Curry
- 20Niko Jones
- 21Iakopo Mapu
- 22Connor Tupai
- 23Rodney Iona
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 4Gregor Brown-6.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist(c)-0.4
- 6Andy Onyeama-Christie
- 7Rory Darge(c)-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Jamie Dobie
- 10Fergus Burke
- 11Arron Reed
- 12Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 13Rory Hutchinson
- 14Kyle Steyn(c)+2.9
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Finlay Richardson
- 19Cameron Henderson
- 20Marshall Sykes
- 21Ben Muncaster
- 22George Horne+4.6
- 23Adam Hastings+8.7
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 46.0% | Possession | 54.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Carries | 144 |
| 398m | Carry metres | 502m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 11 |
| 30 | Defenders beaten | 26 |
| 12 | Offloads | 5 |
| 142 | Passes | 169 |
Defence
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 138 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 26 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 30 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 87.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 8 |
Breakdown
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 78 | Rucks won | 89 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Kicks from hand | 22 |
| 289m | Kick metres | 568m |
Discipline
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Samoa | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 7 |
| 1 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.