Argentina v Uruguay
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
52 – 17
19 July 2025Estadio Padre Ernesto Martearena, Salta
What the model says about Argentina v Uruguay
- Kick-off
- 19:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 1177 m
- Temperature
- 10.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
-24.82090,-65.41912 · imagery by Esri · Google Maps
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Francisco Gomez Kodela+5.7
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Benjamin Grondona
- 8Joaquin Moro
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Nicolás Roger
- 11Santiago Pernas
- 12Justo Piccardo
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Benjamín Elizalde
Replacements
- 16Bautista Bernasconi
- 17Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Lucas Paulos
- 20Nicolas D'Amorim
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Faustino Sanchez Valarolo
- 23Santiago Cordero-1.8
Uruguay
- 1Mateo Sanguinetti
- 2Germán Kessler
- 3Diego Arbelo
- 4Felipe Aliaga
- 5Manuel Leindekar
- 6Manuel Ardao(c)
- 7Lucas Bianchi
- 8Manuel Diana
- 9Santiago Álvarez
- 10Felipe Etcheverry
- 11Ignacio Alvarez
- 12Andrés Vilaseca
- 13Felipe Arcos Perez
- 14Bautista Basso
- 15Juan Gonzalez
Replacements
- 16Facundo Gattas
- 17Francisco Suarez Folch
- 18Ignacio Péculo
- 19Ignacio Dotti
- 20Carlos Deus
- 21Santiago Civetta
- 22Juan Manuel Tafernaberry
- 23Ícaro Amarillo
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 106 | Carries | 82 |
| 720m | Carry metres | 211m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 13 |
| 8 | Offloads | 6 |
| 161 | Passes | 137 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 108 | Tackles made | 111 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 13 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 12 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 11 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 69 | Rucks won | 63 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kicks from hand | 17 |
| 444m | Kick metres | 501m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 14 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Uruguay |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Tries | 2 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.