New Zealand v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 19
19 July 2025FMG Stadium Waikato, Hamilton
What the model says about New Zealand v France
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 46 m
- Temperature
- 7.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 10 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 22 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Samipeni Finau
- 7Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 10Damian McKenzie+0.5
- 11Sevu Reece-4.1
- 12Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 13Anton Lienert-Brown+2.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Ruben Love
Replacements
- 16Brodie McAlister
- 17George Bower+1.1
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Dalton Papali'i+4.6
- 20Christian Lio-Willie
- 21Noah Hotham
- 22Timoci Tavatavanawai
- 23Jordie Barrett+6.6
France
- 1Baptiste Erdocio
- 2Pierre Bourgarit
- 3Rabah Slimani-4.3
- 4Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 5Matthias Halagahu
- 6Alexandre Fischer
- 7Joshua Brennan
- 8Mickaël Guillard
- 9Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 10Antoine Hastoy
- 11Gabin Villière
- 12Gaël Fickou+2.9
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Léo Barré
Replacements
- 16Gaëtan Barlot
- 17Paul Mallez
- 18Demba Bamba-4.4
- 19Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 20Killian Tixeront
- 21Pierre Bochaton
- 22Thibault Daubagna
- 23Émilien Gailleton
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 67.0% | Territory | 33.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 198 | Carries | 98 |
| 499m | Carry metres | 285m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 23 | Defenders beaten | 9 |
| 8 | Offloads | 4 |
| 262 | Passes | 87 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 121 | Tackles made | 292 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 23 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 12 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 10 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 79.0% | Lineout success | 88.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 165 | Rucks won | 78 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 744m | Kick metres | 884m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.