Argentina v New Zealand
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
29 – 23
23 August 2025Estadio José Amalfitani, Buenos Aires
What the model says about Argentina v New Zealand
- Kick-off
- 21:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 25 m
- Temperature
- 11.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 19 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Franco Molina+6.3
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Pablo Matera-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Nahuel Tetaz Chaparro+2.3
- 18Joel Sclavi-2.3
- 19Guido Petti-1.9
- 20Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 21Simon Benitez Cruz
- 22Santiago Carreras
- 23Justo Piccardo
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Fabian Holland
- 6Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Simon Parker
- 9Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Sevu Reece-4.1
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Pasilio Tosi+8.7
- 19Josh Lord-2.2
- 20Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 64.0% | Possession | 36.0% |
| 60.0% | Territory | 40.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 130 | Carries | 57 |
| 505m | Carry metres | 139m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 8 |
| 7 | Offloads | 5 |
| 154 | Passes | 81 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 67 | Tackles made | 165 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 9 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 1 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 6 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 78.0% |
| 6 | Lineouts won | 7 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 93.0% |
| 99 | Rucks won | 42 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Kicks from hand | 15 |
| 375m | Kick metres | 525m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 3 |
| 4 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 12 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | New Zealand |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 5 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.