New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 17
6 September 2025Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 11.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 2.2 mm
- Wind
- 28 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 37 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Finlay Christie-3.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Rieko Ioane+3.4
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Emoni Narawa
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 19Fabian Holland
- 20Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 21Kyle Preston
- 22Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Marco van Staden-5.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 9Grant Williams-4.8
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Canan Moodie+6.3
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Willie le Roux+4.6
Replacements
- 16Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 17Boan Venter
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19Lood de Jager-4.9
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 22Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 23Ethan Hooker
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 48.0% | Possession | 52.0% |
| 40.0% | Territory | 60.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Carries | 96 |
| 195m | Carry metres | 258m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 25 | Defenders beaten | 22 |
| 5 | Offloads | 3 |
| 125 | Passes | 103 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Tackles made | 109 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 74.0% |
| 22 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 25 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 15 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 78.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 75 | Rucks won | 82 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 31 |
| 889m | Kick metres | 734m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.