New Zealand v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
10 – 43
13 September 2025Hnry Stadium, Wellington
What the model says about New Zealand v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 07:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 10 m
- Temperature
- 11.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 40 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 35 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Scott Barrett+2.6
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Noah Hotham
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Leroy Carter
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Brodie McAlister
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Fabian Holland
- 20Du'Plessis Kirifi
- 21Finlay Christie-3.5
- 22Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 23Ruben Love
South Africa
- 1Ox Nché-5.2
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Lood de Jager-4.9
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Ethan Hooker
- 12Damian Willemse-5.4
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 15Aphelele Fassi+0.1
Replacements
- 16Marnus van der Merwe
- 17Jan-Hendrik Wessels-5.8
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 21Grant Williams-4.8
- 22Manie Libbok-3.8
- 23André Esterhuizen+3.1
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 41.0% | Territory | 59.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Carries | 110 |
| 262m | Carry metres | 629m |
| 9 | Clean breaks | 11 |
| 33 | Defenders beaten | 46 |
| 8 | Offloads | 11 |
| 186 | Passes | 153 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 111 | Tackles made | 87 |
| 62.0% | Tackle success | 67.0% |
| 46 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 33 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 69.0% | Lineout success | 79.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 88.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 57 | Rucks won | 77 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Kicks from hand | 32 |
| 751m | Kick metres | 642m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 17 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 6 |
| 1 | Conversions | 5 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.