New Zealand v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 24
27 September 2025Eden Park, Auckland
What the model says about New Zealand v Australia
- Kick-off
- 05:05 UTC
- Elevation
- 37 m
- Temperature
- 15.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 4Fabian Holland
- 5Tupou Vaa'i-5.8
- 6Simon Parker
- 7Ardie Savea-6.0
- 8Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Beauden Barrett-1.1
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Billy Proctor
- 14Leroy Carter
- 15Will Jordan-8.9
Replacements
- 16Samisoni Taukei'aho-0.0
- 17Tamaiti Williams+6.5
- 18Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 19Patrick Tuipulotu-5.3
- 20Peter Lakai+5.9
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 23Damian McKenzie+0.5
Australia
- 1James Slipper-3.3
- 2Billy Pollard+5.3
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Lukhan Salakaia-Loto+1.8
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Tate McDermott+4.9
- 10James O'Connor-0.2
- 11Corey Toole
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Harry Potter-1.0
- 15Max Jorgensen
Replacements
- 16Brandon Paenga-Amosa+11.7
- 17Angus Bell+4.6
- 18Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 19Jeremy Williams
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Ryan Lonergan
- 22Tane Edmed
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 59.0% | Possession | 41.0% |
| 57.0% | Territory | 43.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 162 | Carries | 126 |
| 555m | Carry metres | 353m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 40 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 5 | Offloads | 9 |
| 241 | Passes | 162 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 159 | Tackles made | 216 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 40 |
| 3 | Dominant tackles | 8 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 124 | Rucks won | 102 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 463m | Kick metres | 286m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 15 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.