Scotland v USA
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
85 – 0
1 November 2025Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Scotland v USA
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 8.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.8 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 11 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Patrick Harrison
- 3D'Arcy Rae
- 4Marshall Sykes
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Liam McConnell
- 7Dylan Richardson
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Jamie Dobie
- 10Adam Hastings+8.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 13Ollie Smith
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Kyle Rowe+7.4
Replacements
- 16Harri Morris
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Murphy Walker
- 19Alex Samuel
- 20Max Williamson+11.5
- 21Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 22George Horne+4.6
- 23Ross Thompson
USA
- 1Ezekiel Lindenmuth
- 2Kaleb Geiger
- 3Pono Davis
- 4Marno Redelinghuys
- 5Jason Damm
- 6Vili Helu
- 7Cory Daniel
- 8Paddy Ryan
- 9Ruben de Haas
- 10Chris Hilsenbeck
- 11Toby Fricker
- 12Tommaso Boni
- 13Dominic Besag
- 14Mitch Wilson
- 15Erich Storti
Replacements
- 16Sean McNulty
- 17Payton Telea-Ilalio
- 18Maliu Niuafe
- 19Tevita Naqali
- 20Makeen Alikhan
- 21Ethan McVeigh
- 22Tavite Lopeti
- 23Luke Carty
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 61.0% | Possession | 39.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Carries | 63 |
| 913m | Carry metres | 126m |
| 21 | Clean breaks | 1 |
| 42 | Defenders beaten | 5 |
| 6 | Offloads | 4 |
| 211 | Passes | 94 |
Defence
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Tackles made | 141 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 72.0% |
| 5 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 42 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 82.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 95 | Rucks won | 54 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 850m | Kick metres | 686m |
Discipline
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Scotland | Measure | USA |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Tries | — |
| 10 | Conversions | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.