England v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
38 – 18
8 November 2025Allianz Stadium, London
What the model says about England v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 7 m
- Temperature
- 11.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 14 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Alex Coles-2.3
- 5Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Ben Earl+3.7
- 8Chandler Cunningham-South
- 9Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 12Fraser Dingwall
- 13Ollie Lawrence-1.4
- 14Tommy Freeman
- 15Marcus Smith-0.6
Replacements
- 16Jamie George-3.9
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 19Maro Itoje-12.4
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Ben Spencer-1.4
- 23Henry Arundell
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Mesake Doge
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Pita-Gus Sowakula
- 7Elia Canakaivata
- 8Viliame Mata
- 9Simione Kuruvoli
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Kalaveti Ravouvou
- 14Selestino Ravutaumada
- 15Salesi Rayasi
Replacements
- 16Zuriel Togiatama
- 17Haereiti Hetet
- 18Samu Tawake
- 19Mesake Vocevoce
- 20Motikiai Murray
- 21Sam Wye
- 22Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
- 23Sireli Maqala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 63.0% | Territory | 37.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Carries | 126 |
| 514m | Carry metres | 295m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 18 |
| 4 | Offloads | 18 |
| 174 | Passes | 163 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 157 | Tackles made | 115 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 78.0% |
| 18 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 8 | Dominant tackles | 3 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 14 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 79 | Rucks won | 91 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Kicks from hand | 29 |
| 551m | Kick metres | 689m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.