Wales v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
28 – 52
8 November 2025Cardiff, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Argentina
- Elevation
- 17 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 27 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Keiron Assiratti
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Jac Morgan(c)+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Ben Thomas
- 13Max Llewellyn
- 14Tom Rogers
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Liam Belcher
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20Olly Cracknell
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Argentina
- 1Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 2Julián Montoya(c)
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 6Pablo Matera(c)-1.1
- 7Juan Martín González
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Gerónimo Prisciantelli
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Santiago Chocobares+3.9
- 13Justo Piccardo
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 20Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 21Agustín Moyano
- 22Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
- 23Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 46.0% | Territory | 54.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 135 | Carries | 149 |
| 361m | Carry metres | 622m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 14 |
| 17 | Defenders beaten | 30 |
| 3 | Offloads | 9 |
| 183 | Passes | 166 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 187 | Tackles made | 156 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 87.0% |
| 30 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 17 |
| 7 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 7 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 80.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 104 | Rucks won | 110 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 600m | Kick metres | 518m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| 2 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 7 |
| 4 | Conversions | 7 |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.