Italy v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
26 – 19
8 November 2025Bluenergy Stadium, Udine
What the model says about Italy v Australia
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 115 m
- Temperature
- 8.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Ross Vintcent
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Alessandro Izekor
- 21Martin Page-Relo
- 22Tommaso Allan-3.0
- 23Leonardo Marin+10.6
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Taniela Tupou+2.1
- 4Nick Frost-0.3
- 5Jeremy Williams
- 6Tom Hooper-6.0
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10Carter Gordon
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Hunter Paisami+0.8
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Corey Toole
- 15Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Aidan Ross
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Rob Valetini
- 20Pete Samu-4.3
- 21Ryan Lonergan
- 22Tane Edmed
- 23Filipo Daugunu-7.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 41.0% | Possession | 59.0% |
| 54.0% | Territory | 46.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 77 | Carries | 150 |
| 349m | Carry metres | 382m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 21 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 1 | Offloads | 2 |
| 122 | Passes | 242 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 206 | Tackles made | 97 |
| 91.0% | Tackle success | 79.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 21 |
| 15 | Dominant tackles | 5 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 92.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 12 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 10 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 95.0% |
| 56 | Rucks won | 130 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 23 |
| 593m | Kick metres | 549m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 3 |
| 2 | Conversions | 2 |
| 4 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.