France v Fiji
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 21
15 November 2025Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Bordeaux
What the model says about France v Fiji
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 3 m
- Temperature
- 14.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.8 mm
- Wind
- 16 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 13 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Régis Montagne
- 4Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 5Romain Taofifénua+2.0
- 6Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Grégory Alldritt(c)+5.6
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Romain Ntamack-1.1
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Pierre-Louis Barassi
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Maxime Lamothe
- 17Rodrigue Neti
- 18Thomas Laclayat
- 19Jimi Maximin
- 20Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 21Paul Boudehent+8.2
- 22Baptiste Jauneau
- 23Émilien Gailleton
Fiji
- 1Haereiti Hetet
- 2Tevita Ikanivere(c)
- 3Mesake Doge
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Pita-Gus Sowakula
- 7Elia Canakaivata
- 8Viliame Mata
- 9Simione Kuruvoli
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Kalaveti Ravouvou
- 14Selestino Ravutaumada
- 15Salesi Rayasi
Replacements
- 16Zuriel Togiatama
- 17Atunaisa Sokobale
- 18Tim Hoyt
- 19Mesake Vocevoce
- 20Kitione Salawa
- 21Sam Wye
- 22Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
- 23Sireli Maqala
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 84 | Carries | 141 |
| 337m | Carry metres | 405m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 11 | Offloads | 14 |
| 136 | Passes | 176 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 158 | Tackles made | 71 |
| 77.0% | Tackle success | 65.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 10 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 88.0% | Lineout success | 69.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 11 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 1 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 53 | Rucks won | 110 |
| 8 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 24 |
| 782m | Kick metres | 653m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 3 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Fiji |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Tries | 3 |
| 4 | Conversions | 3 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.