Italy v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
14 – 32
15 November 2025Allianz Stadium
What the model says about Italy v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 12:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 281 m
- Temperature
- 10.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 1.4 mm
- Wind
- 8 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 25 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Ross Vintcent
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 21David Odiase
- 22Martin Page-Relo
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Johan Grobbelaar
- 3Zachary Porthen
- 4Jean Kleyn
- 5Franco Mostert-1.0
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Ben-Jason Dixon
- 8Marco van Staden-5.4
- 9Morné van den Berg
- 10Handré Pollard-4.0
- 11Kurt-Lee Arendse-5.8
- 12Ethan Hooker
- 13Canan Moodie+6.3
- 14Edwill van der Merwe
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 17Wilco Louw-1.7
- 18RG Snyman+8.1
- 19Ruan Nortjé
- 20André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 78 | Carries | 99 |
| 164m | Carry metres | 303m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 11 | Defenders beaten | 14 |
| 4 | Offloads | 5 |
| 113 | Passes | 108 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Tackles made | 103 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 14 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 86.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 78.0% | Scrum success | 60.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 59 | Rucks won | 70 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 1 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Kicks from hand | 34 |
| 889m | Kick metres | 725m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| — | Red cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| — | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.