Ireland v Australia
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
46 – 19
15 November 2025Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Australia
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 10.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 8.9 mm
- Wind
- 45 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 32 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Paddy McCarthy
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Caelan Doris-11.4
- 8Jack Conan-2.8
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Robbie Henshaw-3.3
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Mack Hansen-4.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Andrew Porter
- 18Thomas Clarkson
- 19Nick Timoney
- 20Cian Prendergast
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Australia
- 1Angus Bell+4.6
- 2Matt Faessler-2.1
- 3Allan Alaalatoa-0.8
- 4Jeremy Williams
- 5Tom Hooper-6.0
- 6Rob Valetini
- 7Fraser McReight+12.2
- 8Harry Wilson+1.1
- 9Jake Gordon-0.7
- 10James O'Connor-0.2
- 11Harry Potter-1.0
- 12Len Ikitau+2.7
- 13Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii
- 14Filipo Daugunu-7.5
- 15Max Jorgensen
Replacements
- 16Billy Pollard+5.3
- 17Tom Robertson+2.2
- 18Zane Nonggorr+6.6
- 19Nick Frost-0.3
- 20Carlo Tizzano-5.6
- 21Ryan Lonergan
- 22Tane Edmed
- 23Andrew Kellaway+4.5
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 58.0% | Possession | 42.0% |
| 50.0% | Territory | 50.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 124 | Carries | 99 |
| 420m | Carry metres | 256m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 2 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 6 | Offloads | 4 |
| 198 | Passes | 147 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 119 | Tackles made | 138 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 68.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 10 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 99.0% |
| 89 | Rucks won | 72 |
| 1 | Mauls won | 5 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 45 | Kicks from hand | 25 |
| 1159m | Kick metres | 703m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 14 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Australia |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.