Italy v Chile
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 19
22 November 2025Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genova
What the model says about Italy v Chile
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 23 m
- Temperature
- 5.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.1 mm
- Wind
- 34 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 8 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Muhamed Hasa
- 2Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 6Alessandro Izekor
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 10Giacomo Da Re
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 14Mirko Belloni
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Pablo Dimcheff
- 17Danilo Fischetti
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Enoch Opoku-Gyamfi
- 20Manuel Zuliani
- 21Martin Page-Relo
- 22Juan Ignacio Brex
- 23Edoardo Todaro
Chile
- 1Javier Carrasco
- 2Augusto Böhme
- 3Iñaki Gurruchaga
- 4Santiago Pedrero
- 5Javier Eissmann
- 6Ernesto Tchimino
- 7Clemente Saavedra
- 8Alfonso Escobar
- 9Lucas Berti
- 10Juan Cruz Reyes
- 11Nicolás Saab
- 12Santiago Videla
- 13Domingo Saavedra
- 14Clemente Armstrong
- 15Matías Garafulic
Replacements
- 16Raimundo Martínez
- 17Salvador Lues
- 18Matias Dittus
- 19Bruno Sáez
- 20Augusto Villanueva
- 21Sebastian Bianchi
- 22Tomás Salas
- 23Joaquin Milesi
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 60.0% | Possession | 40.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Carries | 70 |
| 434m | Carry metres | 207m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 6 |
| 9 | Offloads | 7 |
| 167 | Passes | 53 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 95 | Tackles made | 147 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 6 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 23 | Dominant tackles | 2 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 50.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 5 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 90 | Rucks won | 52 |
| 7 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 683m | Kick metres | 726m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 16 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 6 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Chile |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.