England v Argentina
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 23
22 November 2025London, London
What the model says about England v Argentina
- Elevation
- 23 m
- Temperature
- 5.6 °C
- Rainfall
- 10.4 mm
- Wind
- 20 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 31 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 3Asher Opoku-Fordjour
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Alex Coles-2.3
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10George Ford-2.9
- 11Elliot Daly-1.4
- 12Max Ojomoh
- 13Henry Slade0.0
- 14Immanuel Feyi-Waboso+0.6
- 15Freddie Steward-13.3
Replacements
- 16Theo Dan-3.8
- 17Fin Baxter
- 18Will Stuart+2.0
- 19Charlie Ewels-2.7
- 20Tom Curry+0.8
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Alex Mitchell-3.3
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Argentina
- 1Thomas Gallo+1.5
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Pedro Delgado
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Pedro Rubiolo
- 6Juan Martín González
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 9Simon Benitez Cruz
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 12Justo Piccardo
- 13Matías Moroni-12.4
- 14Rodrigo Isgró-3.4
- 15Juan Cruz Mallía+4.3
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Boris Wenger
- 18Tomas Rapetti
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 22Agustín Moyano
- 23Santiago Carreras
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 43.0% | Possession | 57.0% |
| 44.0% | Territory | 56.0% |
Attack
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Carries | 155 |
| 424m | Carry metres | 414m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 4 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 31 |
| 7 | Offloads | 8 |
| 106 | Passes | 180 |
Defence
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 215 | Tackles made | 104 |
| 82.0% | Tackle success | 77.0% |
| 31 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 10 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 75.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 66 | Rucks won | 124 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 1184m | Kick metres | 1259m |
Discipline
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 8 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| England | Measure | Argentina |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 2 |
| 3 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.