Ireland v South Africa
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
13 – 24
22 November 2025Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v South Africa
- Kick-off
- 17:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 7.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 3.4 mm
- Wind
- 22 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 36 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Andrew Porter
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4James Ryan-8.4
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Ryan Baird-0.9
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11James Lowe-6.3
- 12Bundee Aki-3.0
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Mack Hansen-4.3
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Paddy McCarthy
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Cian Prendergast
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Jack Crowley
- 23Tom Farrell
South Africa
- 1Boan Venter
- 2Malcolm Marx-4.3
- 3Thomas du Toit+3.4
- 4Eben Etzebeth-12.7
- 5Ruan Nortjé
- 6Siya Kolisi+2.4
- 7Pieter-Steph du Toit-6.8
- 8Jasper Wiese+5.9
- 9Cobus Reinach+4.7
- 10Sacha Feinberg-Mngomezulu+5.9
- 11Cheslin Kolbe-0.2
- 12Damian de Allende-0.1
- 13Jesse Kriel-6.1
- 14Canan Moodie+6.3
- 15Damian Willemse-5.4
Replacements
- 16Johan Grobbelaar
- 17Gerhard Steenekamp+3.4
- 18Wilco Louw-1.7
- 19RG Snyman+8.1
- 20André Esterhuizen+3.1
- 21Kwagga Smith-8.0
- 22Grant Williams-4.8
- 23Manie Libbok-3.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 42.0% | Territory | 58.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 120 | Carries | 97 |
| 234m | Carry metres | 325m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 20 |
| 7 | Offloads | 9 |
| 152 | Passes | 112 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 125 | Tackles made | 154 |
| 74.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 20 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 6 | Dominant tackles | 15 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 4 |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 73.0% | Lineout success | 86.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 12 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 93 | Rucks won | 59 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 6 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 31 |
| 694m | Kick metres | 608m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 4 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | South Africa |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tries | 4 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.