France v Ireland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
36 – 14
5 February 2026Stade de France, Saint-Denis
What the model says about France v Ireland
- Kick-off
- 20:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 33 m
- Temperature
- 8.8 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.3 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 30 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Charles Ollivon-1.1
- 5Mickaël Guillard
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Nicolas Depoortère
- 14Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 15Thomas Ramos+6.3
Replacements
- 16Peato Mauvaka+6.2
- 17Rodrigue Neti
- 18Régis Montagne
- 19Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 20Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 21Lenni Nouchi
- 22Baptiste Serin-0.1
- 23Kalvin Gourgues
Ireland
- 1Jeremy Loughman
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Thomas Clarkson
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Cian Prendergast
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Sam Prendergast
- 11Jacob Stockdale-3.8
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Tommy O'Brien
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Michael Milne
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19James Ryan-8.4
- 20Jack Conan-2.8
- 21Nick Timoney
- 22Craig Casey+4.3
- 23Jack Crowley
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 59.0% | Territory | 41.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 139 | Carries | 116 |
| 588m | Carry metres | 385m |
| 13 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 35 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 19 | Offloads | 6 |
| 193 | Passes | 154 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 149 | Tackles made | 145 |
| 83.0% | Tackle success | 69.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 35 |
| 18 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 16 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 94 | Rucks won | 87 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Kicks from hand | 39 |
| 1165m | Kick metres | 977m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 2 |
| 4 | Conversions | 2 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.