Italy v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
18 – 15
7 February 2026Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 9.9 °C
- Rainfall
- 6.3 mm
- Wind
- 12 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Michele Lamaro
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Leonardo Marin+10.6
Replacements
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Scott Cummings+2.0
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Jamie Dobie
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Nathan McBeth
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Max Williamson+11.5
- 20Gregor Brown-6.0
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Adam Hastings+8.7
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 39.0% | Possession | 61.0% |
| 38.0% | Territory | 62.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Carries | 154 |
| 306m | Carry metres | 285m |
| 5 | Clean breaks | — |
| 12 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 6 | Offloads | 6 |
| 79 | Passes | 166 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 224 | Tackles made | 94 |
| 88.0% | Tackle success | 82.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 12 |
| 27 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 94.0% | Lineout success | 74.0% |
| 15 | Lineouts won | 14 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 95.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 57 | Rucks won | 136 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | Kicks from hand | 30 |
| 787m | Kick metres | 735m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 12 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 12 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 1 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.