Wales v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 26
21 February 2026Principality Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Wales v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 16:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 9 m
- Temperature
- 10.7 °C
- Rainfall
- 5.1 mm
- Wind
- 33 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Tomas Francis+10.5
- 4Dafydd Jenkins+8.2
- 5Ben Carter
- 6Taine Plumtree
- 7Alex Mann+5.6
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Eddie James
- 14Gabriel Hamer-Webb
- 15Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Archie Griffin+9.9
- 19Freddie Thomas
- 20James Botham+3.8
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Jarrod Evans
- 23Blair Murray
Scotland
- 1Nathan McBeth
- 2Dave Cherry-4.9
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Max Williamson+11.5
- 5Scott Cummings+2.0
- 6Gregor Brown-6.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16George Turner-6.5
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18Elliot Millar-Mills-4.6
- 19Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 20Josh Bayliss
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Tom Jordan
- 23Darcy Graham-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 50.0% | Possession | 50.0% |
| 41.0% | Territory | 59.0% |
Attack
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 133 | Carries | 139 |
| 264m | Carry metres | 432m |
| 2 | Clean breaks | 9 |
| 16 | Defenders beaten | 21 |
| 3 | Offloads | 6 |
| 152 | Passes | 177 |
Defence
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 197 | Tackles made | 164 |
| 86.0% | Tackle success | 88.0% |
| 21 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 16 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 9 |
| 5 | Turnovers won | 3 |
Set pieces
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 83.0% |
| 12 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 80.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 4 | Scrums won | 1 |
Breakdown
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 96.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 110 | Rucks won | 109 |
| 5 | Mauls won | 9 |
Kicking
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Kicks from hand | 13 |
| 639m | Kick metres | 336m |
Discipline
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 2 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| Wales | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 4 |
| 2 | Conversions | 3 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.