France v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
33 – 8
22 February 2026Stade Pierre Mauroy, Lille
What the model says about France v Italy
- Kick-off
- 15:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 41 m
- Temperature
- 11.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 11.0 mm
- Wind
- 25 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 26 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
France
- 1Jean-Baptiste Gros+3.5
- 2Julien Marchand+1.9
- 3Dorian Aldegheri+8.3
- 4Thibaud Flament+10.4
- 5Emmanuel Meafou+4.6
- 6François Cros+9.1
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Anthony Jelonch+7.2
- 9Antoine Dupont+8.4
- 10Thomas Ramos+6.3
- 11Louis Bielle-Biarrey
- 12Fabien Brau-Boirie
- 13Émilien Gailleton
- 14Gaël Dréan
- 15Théo Attissogbé+6.2
Replacements
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Michele Lamaro
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 13Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Ange Capuozzo-6.5
Replacements
- 16Pablo Dimcheff
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Giosuè Zilocchi-7.5
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 21David Odiase
- 22Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 23Paolo Odogwu
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 51.0% | Territory | 49.0% |
Attack
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 136 | Carries | 103 |
| 449m | Carry metres | 248m |
| 7 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 10 |
| 12 | Offloads | 7 |
| 142 | Passes | 144 |
Defence
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 147 | Tackles made | 141 |
| 89.0% | Tackle success | 73.0% |
| 10 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 20 | Dominant tackles | 15 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 63.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 10 |
| 78.0% | Scrum success | 86.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Ruck success | 96.0% |
| 84 | Rucks won | 77 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | Kicks from hand | 27 |
| 774m | Kick metres | 667m |
Discipline
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 5 |
| — | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 1 |
| 7 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 10 |
Scoring
| France | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 1 |
| 4 | Conversions | — |
| — | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.