Italy v England
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
23 – 18
7 March 2026Stadio Olimpico, Rome
What the model says about Italy v England
- Kick-off
- 16:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 56 m
- Temperature
- 13.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.6 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 24 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Giacomo Nicotera
- 3Simone Ferrari+2.3
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Michele Lamaro
- 7Manuel Zuliani
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Alessandro Garbisi-3.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Louis Lynagh-2.5
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
- 16Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Muhamed Hasa
- 19Federico Ruzza+2.6
- 20Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
England
- 1Ellis Genge-12.8
- 2Jamie George-3.9
- 3Joe Heyes
- 4Maro Itoje-12.4
- 5Alex Coles-2.3
- 6Guy Pepper
- 7Sam Underhill+3.4
- 8Ben Earl+3.7
- 9Ben Spencer-1.4
- 10Fin Smith+5.1
- 11Cadan Murley
- 12Seb Atkinson
- 13Tommy Freeman
- 14Tom Roebuck
- 15Elliot Daly-1.4
Replacements
- 16Luke Cowan-Dickie+1.3
- 17Bevan Rodd
- 18Trevor Davison
- 19Ollie Chessum-2.0
- 20Chandler Cunningham-South
- 21Henry Pollock
- 22Jack van Poortvliet+2.8
- 23Marcus Smith-0.6
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 47.0% | Possession | 53.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 92 | Carries | 118 |
| 324m | Carry metres | 444m |
| 8 | Clean breaks | 6 |
| 20 | Defenders beaten | 32 |
| 9 | Offloads | 4 |
| 128 | Passes | 156 |
Defence
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 137 | Tackles made | 105 |
| 78.0% | Tackle success | 76.0% |
| 32 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 20 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 11 |
| 9 | Turnovers won | 9 |
Set pieces
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 17 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 33.0% | Scrum success | 60.0% |
| 1 | Scrums won | 3 |
Breakdown
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 91.0% | Ruck success | 94.0% |
| 68 | Rucks won | 97 |
| 6 | Mauls won | 3 |
Kicking
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 37 | Kicks from hand | 38 |
| 973m | Kick metres | 918m |
Discipline
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | 2 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 9 |
Scoring
| Italy | Measure | England |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Tries | 2 |
| 2 | Conversions | 1 |
| 3 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.