Ireland v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
43 – 21
14 March 2026Aviva Stadium, Dublin
What the model says about Ireland v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 14:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 0 m
- Temperature
- 6.0 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.2 mm
- Wind
- 17 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 34 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Ireland
- 1Tom O'Toole+9.1
- 2Dan Sheehan-9.2
- 3Tadhg Furlong+0.9
- 4Joe McCarthy-11.9
- 5Tadhg Beirne-9.1
- 6Jack Conan-2.8
- 7Josh van der Flier-6.9
- 8Caelan Doris-11.4
- 9Jamison Gibson-Park-13.5
- 10Jack Crowley
- 11Tommy O'Brien
- 12Stuart McCloskey+4.8
- 13Garry Ringrose-5.7
- 14Robert Baloucoune
- 15Jamie Osborne
Replacements
- 16Ronan Kelleher-7.5
- 17Michael Milne
- 18Finlay Bealham-3.1
- 19Darragh Murray
- 20Nick Timoney
- 21Craig Casey+4.3
- 22Ciarán Frawley
- 23Bundee Aki-3.0
Scotland
- 1Pierre Schoeman
- 2George Turner-6.5
- 3Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 4Max Williamson+11.5
- 5Grant Gilchrist-0.4
- 6Matt Fagerson-11.0
- 7Rory Darge-13.6
- 8Jack Dempsey-12.0
- 9Ben White-12.7
- 10Finn Russell-13.7
- 11Kyle Steyn+2.9
- 12Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
- 13Huw Jones-6.4
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Blair Kinghorn-12.3
Replacements
- 16Ewan Ashman-11.1
- 17Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 18D'Arcy Rae
- 19Alex Craig
- 20Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 21George Horne+4.6
- 22Kyle Rowe+7.4
- 23Tom Jordan
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 44.0% | Possession | 56.0% |
| 49.0% | Territory | 51.0% |
Attack
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 123 | Carries | 163 |
| 428m | Carry metres | 291m |
| 6 | Clean breaks | 5 |
| 19 | Defenders beaten | 23 |
| 5 | Offloads | 10 |
| 181 | Passes | 203 |
Defence
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 228 | Tackles made | 162 |
| 84.0% | Tackle success | 84.0% |
| 23 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 19 |
| 15 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 6 | Turnovers won | — |
Set pieces
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 93.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 13 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 67.0% |
| 6 | Scrums won | 2 |
Breakdown
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 98.0% |
| 108 | Rucks won | 138 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 540m | Kick metres | 469m |
Discipline
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 7 |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Ireland | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | — |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.