Fiji v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
24 – 39
4 July 2026Cardiff City Stadium, Cardiff
What the model says about Fiji v Wales
- Kick-off
- 13:10 UTC
No reading on file for this ground and day. This ground's coordinate has not been checked against the country it is in, so no altitude or conditions are published for it.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 16 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Tim Hoyt
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Pita-Gus Sowakula
- 7Kitione Salawa
- 8Elia Canakaivata
- 9Frank Lomani
- 10Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Semi Radradra
- 14Selestino Ravutaumada
- 15Salesi Rayasi
Replacements
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Ben Carter
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6Alex Mann+5.6
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Dan Edwards
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Eddie James
- 14Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Ben Warren
- 19Taine Plumtree
- 20James Botham+3.8
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Sam Costelow+2.7
- 23Ellis Mee
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 55.0% | Possession | 45.0% |
| 53.0% | Territory | 47.0% |
Attack
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 148 | Carries | 79 |
| 690m | Carry metres | 271m |
| 10 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 39 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 32 | Offloads | 2 |
| 203 | Passes | 93 |
Defence
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 75 | Tackles made | 166 |
| 80.0% | Tackle success | 66.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 39 |
| 2 | Dominant tackles | 6 |
| 8 | Turnovers won | 7 |
Set pieces
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 89.0% | Lineout success | 94.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 15 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 7 |
Breakdown
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 92.0% | Ruck success | 89.0% |
| 84 | Rucks won | 49 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 10 |
Kicking
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 311m | Kick metres | 653m |
Discipline
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 10 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 7 |
Scoring
| Fiji | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 6 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.