Japan v Italy
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
27 – 10
4 July 2026Prince Chichibu Memorial Stadium, Tokyo
What the model says about Japan v Italy
- Kick-off
- 08:40 UTC
- Elevation
- 40 m
- Temperature
- 23.4 °C
- Rainfall
- 4.1 mm
- Wind
- 11 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 10 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Japan
- 1Takato Okabe
- 2Mamoru Harada
- 3Shuhei Takeuchi
- 4Harry Hockings
- 5Warner Dearns
- 6Ben Gunter
- 7Kanji Shimokawa
- 8Jack Cornelsen
- 9Naoto Saitō
- 10Ryunosuke Ito
- 11Kippei Ishida
- 12Yuya Hirose
- 13Dylan Riley
- 14Kazuma Ueda
- 15Takuro Matsunaga
Replacements
- 16Hayate Era
- 17Sojiro Otsuka
- 18Keijiro Tamefusa
- 19Michael Stolberg
- 20Michael Leitch
- 21Tiennan Costley
- 22Itsuki Kamimura
- 23Sam Greene
Italy
- 1Danilo Fischetti
- 2Tommaso Di Bartolomeo
- 3Marco Riccioni-3.5
- 4Niccolò Cannone
- 5Andrea Zambonin+9.7
- 6Alessandro Ortombina
- 7Michele Lamaro
- 8Lorenzo Cannone
- 9Stephen Varney-4.1
- 10Paolo Garbisi
- 11Monty Ioane-7.7
- 12Tommaso Menoncello+7.9
- 13Juan Ignacio Brex
- 14Malik Faissal
- 15Lorenzo Pani
Replacements
- 16Gianmarco Lucchesi-6.3
- 17Mirco Spagnolo
- 18Muhamed Hasa
- 19Riccardo Favretto-1.6
- 20Ross Vintcent
- 21Alessandro Fusco+1.0
- 22Leonardo Marin+10.6
- 23Tommaso Allan-3.0
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 52.0% | Territory | 48.0% |
Attack
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 127 | Carries | 115 |
| 282m | Carry metres | 308m |
| 3 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 13 | Defenders beaten | 17 |
| 4 | Offloads | 5 |
| 153 | Passes | 162 |
Defence
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 155 | Tackles made | 170 |
| 85.0% | Tackle success | 86.0% |
| 17 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 13 |
| 11 | Dominant tackles | 14 |
| 4 | Turnovers won | 1 |
Set pieces
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 90.0% |
| 10 | Lineouts won | 18 |
| 89.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 8 | Scrums won | 4 |
Breakdown
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 99.0% | Ruck success | 100.0% |
| 108 | Rucks won | 90 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 7 |
Kicking
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | Kicks from hand | 26 |
| 961m | Kick metres | 695m |
Discipline
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 6 |
| 3 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 15 |
Scoring
| Japan | Measure | Italy |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 1 |
| 3 | Conversions | 1 |
| 2 | Penalty goals | 1 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.