New Zealand v France
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
34 – 32
4 July 2026One NZ Stadium, Christchurch
What the model says about New Zealand v France
- Kick-off
- 07:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 6 m
- Temperature
- 12.2 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 30 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 28 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
New Zealand
- 1Ethan de Groot-10.5
- 2Codie Taylor-2.6
- 3Fletcher Newell-6.9
- 4Josh Lord-2.2
- 5Sam Darry
- 6Peter Lakai+5.9
- 7Luke Jacobson+2.4
- 8Ardie Savea-6.0
- 9Cam Roigard+11.5
- 10Ruben Love
- 11Caleb Clarke+9.0
- 12Jordie Barrett+6.6
- 13Quinn Tupaea-8.0
- 14Will Jordan-8.9
- 15Damian McKenzie+0.5
Replacements
- 16Asafo Aumua-2.6
- 17Xavier Numia
- 18Tyrel Lomax-0.1
- 19Jamie Hannah
- 20Wallace Sititi-6.7
- 21Cortez Ratima+0.5
- 22Billy Proctor
- 23Fehi Fineanganofo
France
- 1Jefferson Poirot-4.1
- 2Maxime Lamothe
- 3Demba Bamba-4.4
- 4Hugo Auradou+3.2
- 5Tom Staniforth
- 6Pierre Bochaton
- 7Oscar Jégou+14.2
- 8Marko Gazzotti
- 9Maxime Lucu+1.2
- 10Matthieu Jalibert+1.8
- 11Théo Attissogbé+6.2
- 12Yoram Moefana+7.0
- 13Fabien Brau-Boirie
- 14Damian Penaud-1.8
- 15Max Spring
Replacements
- 16Barnabé Massa
- 17Reda Wardi+2.8
- 18Régis Montagne
- 19Mickaël Guillard
- 20Killian Tixeront
- 21Nolann Le Garrec-10.8
- 22Antoine Hastoy
- 23Nicolas Depoortère
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 51.0% | Possession | 49.0% |
| 47.0% | Territory | 53.0% |
Attack
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 146 | Carries | 146 |
| 501m | Carry metres | 481m |
| 11 | Clean breaks | 12 |
| 27 | Defenders beaten | 25 |
| 6 | Offloads | 11 |
| 220 | Passes | 186 |
Defence
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 165 | Tackles made | 188 |
| 79.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 25 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 27 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 16 |
| 3 | Turnovers won | 2 |
Set pieces
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 82.0% | Lineout success | 80.0% |
| 9 | Lineouts won | 8 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 5 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 120 | Rucks won | 113 |
| 4 | Mauls won | 4 |
Kicking
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 504m | Kick metres | 538m |
Discipline
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 9 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 5 |
Scoring
| New Zealand | Measure | France |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 4 |
| 3 | Conversions | 3 |
| 1 | Penalty goals | 2 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.