Argentina v Wales
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
35 – 21
11 July 2026Estadio Bicentenario, San Juan
What the model says about Argentina v Wales
- Kick-off
- 19:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 616 m
- Temperature
- 8.5 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.0 mm
- Wind
- 15 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 29 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Argentina
- 1Boris Wenger
- 2Julián Montoya
- 3Tomas Rapetti
- 4Guido Petti-1.9
- 5Matías Alemanno+1.7
- 6Santiago Grondona-4.3
- 7Marcos Kremer-0.0
- 8Joaquín Oviedo+10.7
- 9Gonzalo Garcia+1.8
- 10Tomas Albornoz+6.7
- 11Mateo Carreras+1.7
- 12Justo Piccardo
- 13Lucio Cinti-5.6
- 14Bautista Delguy+4.7
- 15Santiago Carreras
Replacements
- 16Ignacio Ruiz+10.3
- 17Mayco Vivas+2.5
- 18Francisco Coria Marchetti
- 19Franco Molina+6.3
- 20Pablo Matera-1.1
- 21Simon Benitez Cruz
- 22Matías Moroni-12.4
- 23Ignacio Mendy
Wales
- 1Rhys Carré-1.2
- 2Dewi Lake-5.3
- 3Dillon Lewis+0.1
- 4Ben Carter
- 5Adam Beard+1.0
- 6James Botham+3.8
- 7Jac Morgan+0.3
- 8Aaron Wainwright+1.1
- 9Tomos Williams+0.8
- 10Sam Costelow+2.7
- 11Josh Adams+7.4
- 12Joe Hawkins
- 13Eddie James
- 14Ellis Mee
- 15Blair Murray
Replacements
- 16Ryan Elias+3.4
- 17Nicky Smith-0.9
- 18Ben Warren
- 19Teddy Williams
- 20Kane James
- 21Kieran Hardy+1.3
- 22Max Llewellyn
- 23Louis Rees-Zammit+10.8
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 52.0% | Possession | 48.0% |
| 63.0% | Territory | 37.0% |
Attack
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 157 | Carries | 157 |
| 534m | Carry metres | 312m |
| 12 | Clean breaks | 3 |
| 32 | Defenders beaten | 11 |
| 7 | Offloads | 8 |
| 214 | Passes | 173 |
Defence
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 167 | Tackles made | 194 |
| 87.0% | Tackle success | 80.0% |
| 11 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 32 |
| 13 | Dominant tackles | 1 |
| 2 | Turnovers won | 8 |
Set pieces
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 93.0% | Lineout success | 100.0% |
| 13 | Lineouts won | 9 |
| 100.0% | Scrum success | 83.0% |
| 2 | Scrums won | 5 |
Breakdown
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 97.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 112 | Rucks won | 105 |
| 3 | Mauls won | 2 |
Kicking
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 21 | Kicks from hand | 21 |
| 517m | Kick metres | 552m |
Discipline
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 9 |
| 8 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 8 |
Scoring
| Argentina | Measure | Wales |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Tries | 3 |
| 5 | Conversions | 3 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.