Fiji v Scotland
What the record holds about this fixture, beside what the model says about it.
17 – 33
18 July 2026Scottish Gas Murrayfield, Edinburgh
What the model says about Fiji v Scotland
- Kick-off
- 13:10 UTC
- Elevation
- 49 m
- Temperature
- 15.1 °C
- Rainfall
- 0.3 mm
- Wind
- 13 km/h
Daily means at the ground, from the ERA5 reanalysis via Open-Meteo.
Beside a name: points of margin the side has beaten its own rating by with him in the squad, against the same period without him. 14 of the 46 named here have enough matches on both sides to measure.
Fiji
- 1Eroni Mawi
- 2Tevita Ikanivere
- 3Mesake Doge
- 4Isoa Nasilasila
- 5Temo Mayanavanua
- 6Pita-Gus Sowakula
- 7Lekima Tagitagivalu
- 8Elia Canakaivata
- 9Frank Lomani
- 10Caleb Muntz
- 11Jiuta Wainiqolo
- 12Josua Tuisova
- 13Virimi Vakatawa-5.1
- 14Selestino Ravutaumada
- 15Isaiah Armstrong-Ravula
Replacements
- 16Sam Matavesi
- 17Livai Natave
- 18Peni Ravai+5.9
- 19Mesake Vocevoce
- 20Kitione Salawa
- 21Sam Wye
- 22Isikeli Rabitu
- 23Salesi Rayasi
Scotland
- 1Rory Sutherland+8.1
- 2Gregor Hiddleston
- 3D'Arcy Rae
- 4Jonny Gray-7.0
- 5Max Williamson+11.5
- 6Josh Bayliss
- 7Freddy Douglas
- 8Gregor Brown-6.0
- 9George Horne+4.6
- 10Fergus Burke
- 11Duhan van der Merwe-6.2
- 12Stafford McDowall+9.8
- 13Ollie Smith
- 14Darcy Graham-3.0
- 15Tom Jordan
Replacements
- 16Seb Stephen
- 17Pierre Schoeman
- 18Zander Fagerson-4.4
- 19Scott Cummings+2.0
- 20Liam McConnell
- 21Magnus Bradbury+2.4
- 22Jamie Dobie
- 23Sione Tuipulotu-6.9
Measured against the side's point-in-time rating, so opposition and venue are already removed, and over the years between a player's first and last cap rather than his side's whole history. None of the 778 players assessed has a gap larger than chance explains once the number tested is corrected for — a rating already contains the players who usually play for a side, so what a team sheet can add to it is small. Team selection is not an input to the forecast on this page. The full table and the method.
Possession and territory
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 35.0% | Possession | 65.0% |
| 32.0% | Territory | 68.0% |
Attack
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 89 | Carries | 192 |
| 254m | Carry metres | 630m |
| 4 | Clean breaks | 11 |
| 10 | Defenders beaten | 35 |
| 9 | Offloads | 12 |
| 128 | Passes | 260 |
Defence
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 247 | Tackles made | 102 |
| 81.0% | Tackle success | 83.0% |
| 35 | Missed tackles(fewer is better) | 10 |
| 23 | Dominant tackles | 7 |
| 10 | Turnovers won | 5 |
Set pieces
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 100.0% | Lineout success | 89.0% |
| 8 | Lineouts won | 17 |
| 78.0% | Scrum success | 100.0% |
| 7 | Scrums won | 6 |
Breakdown
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 98.0% | Ruck success | 97.0% |
| 61 | Rucks won | 146 |
| 2 | Mauls won | 8 |
Kicking
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kicks from hand | 10 |
| 530m | Kick metres | 174m |
Discipline
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Penalties conceded(fewer is better) | 4 |
| 1 | Yellow cards(fewer is better) | — |
| 6 | Knock-ons(fewer is better) | 11 |
Scoring
| Fiji | Measure | Scotland |
|---|---|---|
| 3 | Tries | 5 |
| 1 | Conversions | 4 |
Context beside the forecast, never inside it. Weather, team selection and match statistics are not model inputs, so a published probability does not move because any of them changed.